The $3.3 Million Wager on Jesus

Back when I was pastoring, a professional poker player attended our church regularly.  

 

He had won national championships and various World Series of Poker events.

One weekend he caught me between services and asked, “Hey Dave, what do you think about gambling?”

“Depends on what you think about tithing,” I responded.

Okay, I agree it was flippant. And I do have some thoughts about gambling, including the oft-repeated line, “State lotteries are a tax on stupid.”

I don’t know what it’s like in your region, but gambling commercials run rampant in our market. This year, the NFL limited gambling ads to six during the Super Bowl, but the list of things you could bet on was exceptionally creative—extending way beyond the coin toss. For instance, you could wager on:

• How many Olympic commercials would run (Olympic, not Ozempic. That's a different bet)

• The president’s approval rating during the game

• The first song Bad Bunny would perform

• Whether a marriage proposal would happen on the field

• The national anthem coming in over/under 119.5 seconds

• A player being ejected for fighting

• The color of the Gatorade dumped on the winning coach

The truth is: you can legally bet on almost anything today.

The latest, strangest wager in my book? Whether Jesus would return in a given year. Last year, over $3.3 million was wagered, largely paying out for “No” by December 31st.

Polymarket, a crypto-based gambling market, brought the wager back for 2026. By early last month, the “Yes” odds had risen to 4%. The platform claims the outcome will be determined by a “consensus of credible sources.”

Um, this shouldn’t be hard based on that whole “every-eye-will-behold-him” thing. But I’ll leave that up to the eschatology experts and the shareholders of Polymarket.

According to the folks at Coindesk, traders “have doubled the implied odds of the Second Coming of Jesus Christ occurring by year-end, turning one of the platform’s stranger contracts into a better performer than Bitcoin.”

I don’t even know what that means. I’ll leave that one up to whoever really understands the cryptoverse.

According to Pew Research, just over half (55%) of U.S. adults believe Jesus will return—a number I actually find surprisingly high. Regardless, it breaks out to 92% of Evangelicals, 64% of Mainline Protestants, and 63% of Catholic believers are expecting a Second Coming.

But relatively soon? Only 21% of Evangelicals, 6% of Mainline Protestants, and 7% of Catholics believe it will happen in their lifetime. By personal experience, the percentage points drop precipitously during the AARP years.

The three foundational creeds—Apostles, Nicene, and Athanasian—all affirm the return of Jesus. It seems this is pretty important; the details and scheduling are vague, but the consensus is strong: He’s coming back. Hope reigns

So, I’d say it’s a pretty safe bet.

Much better than the thirty pieces of silver wager.

But it makes me wonder: Pastors and leaders, when was the last time you actually talked about this in a relevant way? Maybe we need a serious dose of hopefulness these days.

Dave Workman | The Elemental Group

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